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See the method in use
The expected value calculator shows its formula, takes your numbers and runs in your browser.
What a calculator does
Each calculator on this site takes the numbers you type in, puts them through a formula, and shows the result. The formula is written on the page or in the guide that goes with it. Nothing is estimated from a hidden model.
The calculation runs in your browser. The numbers you enter are not sent to us or to anyone else. For example, the expected value calculator uses:
A calculator gives you the result of a formula for the numbers you entered. If the inputs are wrong, the output is wrong. It does not know your broker's rules, your costs or what the market will do next.
Made-up examples and calculated numbers
Every example number on this site is one of two kinds, and the page says which.
- Made-up example. A round number chosen to show how a formula works, such as a $1,000 account. It is labelled "a made-up example". It is not from a real account, a real bot or a real broker.
- Calculated by us. A result we worked out exactly, and checked, on a stated date. It is labelled with the date, for example "calculated by us on 27 Oct 2026, exact". If it is an approximation, the page says "approximation".
If a rule differs between brokers or exchanges, such as margin call levels, we say it differs and tell you to check yours. We do not state how any named product behaves.
What a backtest figure should show
A backtest replays a strategy over past prices. It is easy to make one look good and hard to make one honest. The only backtests on this site are on the Our results page. They are hypothetical, and they do not meet the full list below. The grid tests include a trading fee but no spread or slippage, the ladder tests include no costs at all, and none of them has a build period and a later test period. That page lists these limits next to the figures. A full standard backtest shows all of the following, and where an item is missing the page says so.
- Data source and dates. Where the prices came from and the exact start and end dates.
- Costs and spread included. Spread, commission, swap or funding, and slippage, with the values used.
- A build period and a later test period. Any tuning is done on the first period. The result we report comes from the later period, which the tuning never saw.
- Settings fixed before the test period. The rules and parameters are written down before the later period is run, not adjusted after looking at it.
- The worst drawdown and the number of trades. A result from a handful of trades is shown as what it is. The deepest fall from a peak is shown next to any profit figure.
- The sentence that results are hypothetical. A backtest did not trade real money, and it is not a forecast.
The guides on overfitting, look-ahead bias and forward testing explain why each of these items matters.
How we handle errors
We check our arithmetic in code before it goes on a page, and each worked example is reproduced by a test in the calculator it belongs to. We still can make mistakes. When we find one, we will correct the page and put a dated correction note at the top of it, so the change is visible and not quietly overwritten. To report an error, use the form on the contact page.
What a page may claim and what it may not
| A page may claim | A page may not claim |
|---|---|
| What a formula is and how to use it, with the arithmetic shown | That a number will happen in the future |
| That an example is made-up, or that a number was calculated on a stated date | That an example is typical of "most traders" or "most bots" |
| How a type of bot works and how it can fail | That a bot, setting or product will make money |
| A backtest result that lists its data, dates, rules and costs, and says what it leaves out | A performance figure that hides what it leaves out, such as costs or a later test period |
| That a rule varies by broker, and that you must check yours | How a named broker, exchange or product behaves, unless the fact is stable and general |
| That results are hypothetical | That a result is certain, safe or easy |
What we will never publish
- Trading signals, or any instruction to buy or sell something.
- Profit promises, in any wording.
- Performance figures that leave out costs without saying so.
- Results chosen after the fact because they looked best.
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FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
Do the calculators send my numbers anywhere?
No. The calculation runs in your browser and the numbers you type are not sent to us or to anyone else.
How do I tell a made-up example from a calculated number?
The page labels it. Made-up examples say "a made-up example". Numbers we worked out say "calculated by us" with the date, and say whether they are exact or an approximation.
Has the site published any backtests?
Yes, on the Our results page: our own hypothetical backtests of grid and doubling-ladder rules on past prices. Each lists its data, dates and rules. The grid tests include a trading fee but no spread or slippage, the ladder tests include no costs, and none has a later test period. The page states these limits and says the results are hypothetical.
What happens if a figure on a page is wrong?
We will correct the page and put a dated correction note at the top of it. Report an error through the contact form.
Will you ever publish signals or profit promises?
No. The site does not publish trading signals or profit promises, and it does not hide what a performance figure leaves out.
Are the numbers on this page real?
Example numbers are made up to show how the maths works, and the page says so. A figure only counts as exact when the page says it was calculated on a stated date. Nothing you enter in a calculator leaves your browser.
Can I use this to decide whether to run a bot?
It can show whether a bot's numbers hold together and how much an account can lose. It cannot say what the market will do, and it is not advice. Use it to ask better questions, then read the terms of your own broker or exchange.
Is this financial advice?
No. The site is general education. It does not consider your situation and it does not recommend any trade, bot or product.
Know the Risk Before You Run It
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Free. Confirm your email, then log in. A new account shows Pending approval until our team switches it on.
Trading carries a risk of loss